At USENIX SREcon22 APAC I gave the opening keynote on the future of computer performance, rounding up the latest developments and making predictions of where I see things heading. This talk originated from my updates to Systems Performance 2nd Edition , and this was the first time I've given this talk in person!
The video is now on YouTube :
VIDEO
The slides are online and as a PDF :
/ permalink/zoom
In Q&A I was asked about CXL (compute express link) which was fortunate as I had planned to cover it and then forgot, so the question let me talk about it (although Q&A is missing from the video). CXL in a way allows a custom memory controller to be added to a system, to increase memory capacity, bandwidth, and overall performance. My personal opinion is that I don't see a widespread need for more capacity given horizontal scaling and servers that can already exceed 1 Tbyte of DRAM; bandwidth is also helpful, but I'd be concerned about the increased latency for adding a hop to more memory. So it's interesting, but I don't think they have the killer use case for it yet.
Realizing and exceeding a lifelong dream
I began my tech career as a junior Unix sysadmin in Newcastle, NSW, Australia, in 1999, with no connection to the exciting world of tech in Silicon Valley, New York, or even nearby Sydney. As I was determined to become great at my new occupation regardless of my location, I read every sysadmin book, article, and magazine I could find on the shelf. This included SysAdmin magazine, which contained articles from various experts including Amy Rich, and a couple of advertisements: One was to submit your own articles to the magazine for publication (by writing to the editor, Rikki Endsley) and another was to attend USENIX conferences in the US and learn directly from the experts! I made both of these my goals, even though I'd never been published before and I'd never been to the US. Or even on a plane.
I didn't end up getting published in SysAdmin directly, but my performance work did make it as a feature article (thanks Matty). As for attending USENIX conferences: I finally started attending and speaking at them in 2010 when a community manager encouraged me to (thanks Deirdre Straughan), and since then I've met many friends and connections, including Amy who is now USENIX President, and Rikki with whom I co-chaired the USENIX LISA18 conference. USENIX has been a great help to my career and my employers, and I hope it is just as helpful for you. It's an important vendor-neutral space to share the latest in technology.
And now, helping bring USENIX conferences to Australia by giving the first keynote: I could not have scripted or expected it. It was a great privilege.
SREcon 2023 CFP
Tech moves fast, however, and I have little time to reflect on 2022 when there's 2023 to plan! I'm now program co-chair for SREcon 2023 APAC, and our 2023 conference is June 14-16 in Singapore. The call for participation ends on March 2nd 23:59 SGT! That's about 24 hours from now!
References
I've reproduced the references from my SREcon22 keynote below, so you can click on links:
[Gregg 08] Brendan Gregg, “ZFS L2ARC,” http://www.brendangregg.com/blog/2008-07-22/zfs-l2arc.html , Jul 2008
[Gregg 10] Brendan Gregg, “Visualizations for Performance Analysis (and More),” https://www.usenix.org/conference/lisa10/visualizations-performance-analysis-and-more , 2010
[Greenberg 11] Marc Greenberg, “DDR4: Double the speed, double the latency? Make sure your system can handle next-generation DRAM,” https://www.chipestimate.com/DDR4-Double-the-speed-double-the-latencyMake-sure-your-system-can-handle-next-generation-DRAM/Cadence/Technical-Article/2011/11/22 , Nov 2011
[Hruska 12] Joel Hruska, “The future of CPU scaling: Exploring options on the cutting edge,” https://www.extremetech.com/computing/184946-14nm-7nm-5nm-how-low-can-cmos-go-it-depends-if-you-ask-the-engineers-or-the-economists , Feb 2012
[Gregg 13] Brendan Gregg, “Blazing Performance with Flame Graphs,” https://www.usenix.org/conference/lisa13/technical-sessions/plenary/gregg , 2013
[Shimpi 13] Anand Lal Shimpi, “Seagate to Ship 5TB HDD in 2014 using Shingled Magnetic Recording,” https://www.anandtech.com/show/7290/seagate-to-ship-5tb-hdd-in-2014-using-shingled-magnetic-recording , Sep 2013
[Borkmann 14] Daniel Borkmann, “net: tcp: add DCTCP congestion control algorithm,” https://git.kernel.org/pub/scm/linux/kernel/git/torvalds/linux.git/commit/?id=e3118e8359bb7c59555aca60c725106e6d78c5ce , 2014
[Macri 15] Joe Macri, “Introducing HBM,” https://www.amd.com/en/technologies/hbm , Jul 2015
[Cardwell 16] Neal Cardwell, et al., “BBR: Congestion-Based Congestion Control,” https://queue.acm.org/detail.cfm?id=3022184 , 2016
[Gregg 16] Brendan Gregg, “Unikernel Profiling: Flame Graphs from dom0,” http://www.brendangregg.com/blog/2016-01-27/unikernel-profiling-from-dom0.html , Jan 2016
[Gregg 16b] Brendan Gregg, “Linux BPF Superpowers,” https://www.brendangregg.com/blog/2016-03-05/linux-bpf-superpowers.html , 2016
[Alcorn 17] Paul Alcorn, “Seagate To Double HDD Speed With Multi-Actuator Technology,” https://www.tomshardware.com/news/hdd-multi-actuator-heads-seagate,36132.html , 2017
[Alcorn 17b] Paul Alcorn, “Hot Chips 2017: Intel Deep Dives Into EMIB,” https://www.tomshardware.com/news/intel-emib-interconnect-fpga-chiplet,35316.html#xenforo-comments-3112212 , 2017
[Corbet 17] Jonathan Corbet, “Two new block I/O schedulers for 4.12,” https://lwn.net/Articles/720675 , Apr 2017
[Gregg 17] Brendan Gregg, “AWS EC2 Virtualization 2017: Introducing Nitro,” http://www.brendangregg.com/blog/2017-11-29/aws-ec2-virtualization-2017.html , Nov 2017
[Russinovich 17] Mark Russinovich, “Inside the Microsoft FPGA-based configurable cloud,” https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/video/inside-microsoft-fpga-based-configurable-cloud , 2017
[Gregg 18] Brendan Gregg, “Linux Performance 2018,” http://www.brendangregg.com/Slides/Percona2018_Linux_Performance.pdf , 2018
[Hady 18] Frank Hady, “Achieve Consistent Low Latency for Your Storage-Intensive Workloads,” https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/architecture-and-technology/optane-technology/low-latency-for-storage-intensive-workloads-article-brief.html , 2018
[Joshi 18] Amit Joshi, et al., “Titus, the Netflix container management platform, is now open source,” https://netflixtechblog.com/titus-the-netflix-container-management-platform-is-now-open-source-f868c9fb5436 , Apr 2018
[Cutress 19] Dr. Ian Cutress, “Xilinx Announces World Largest FPGA: Virtex Ultrascale+ VU19P with 9m Cells,” https://www.anandtech.com/show/14798/xilinx-announces-world-largest-fpga-virtex-ultrascale-vu19p-with-9m-cells , Aug 2019
[Gallatin 19] Drew Gallatin, “Kernel TLS and hardware TLS offload in FreeBSD 13,” https://people.freebsd.org/~gallatin/talks/euro2019-ktls.pdf , 2019
[Bearman 20] Ian Bearman, “Exploring Profile Guided Optimization of the Linux Kernel,” https://linuxplumbersconf.org/event/7/contributions/771 , 2020
[Burnes 20] Andrew Burnes, “GeForce RTX 30 Series Graphics Cards: The Ultimate Play,” https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/geforce/news/introducing-rtx-30-series-graphics-cards , Sep 2020
[Charlene 20] Charlene, “800G Is Coming: Set Pace to More Higher Speed Applications,” https://community.fs.com/blog/800-gigabit-ethernet-and-optics.html , May 2020
[Cutress 20] Dr. Ian Cutress, “Insights into DDR5 Sub-timings and Latencies,” https://www.anandtech.com/show/16143/insights-into-ddr5-subtimings-and-latencies , Oct 2020
[Ford 20] A. Ford, et al., “TCP Extensions for Multipath Operation with Multiple Addresses,” https://datatracker.ietf.org/doc/html/rfc8684 , Mar 2020
[Gregg 20] Brendan Gregg, “Systems Performance: Enterprise and the Cloud, Second Edition,” Addison-Wesley, 2020
[Hruska 20] Joel Hruska, “Intel Demos PCIe 5.0 on Upcoming Sapphire Rapids CPUs,” https://www.extremetech.com/computing/316257-intel-demos-pcie-5-0-on-upcoming-sapphire-rapids-cpus ,
Oct 2020
[Liu 20] Linda Liu, “Samsung QVO vs EVO vs PRO: What’s the Difference? [Clone Disk],”
https://www.partitionwizard.com/clone-disk/samsung-qvo-vs-evo.html , 2020
[Moore 20] Samuel K. Moore, “A Better Way to Measure Progress in Semiconductors,” https://spectrum.ieee.org/semiconductors/devices/a-better-way-to-measure-progress-in-semiconductors , Jul 2020
[Peterson 20] Zachariah Peterson, “DDR5 vs. DDR6: Here's What to Expect in RAM Modules,” https://resources.altium.com/p/ddr5-vs-ddr6-heres-what-expect-ram-modules , Nov 2020
[Salter 20] Jim Salter, “Western Digital releases new 18TB, 20TB EAMR drives,” https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2020/07/western-digital-releases-new-18tb-20tb-eamr-drives , Jul 2020
[Spier 20] Martin Spier, Brendan Gregg, et al., “FlameScope,” https://github.com/Netflix/flamescope , 2020
[Tolvanen 20] Sami Tolvanen, Bill Wendling, and Nick Desaulniers, “LTO, PGO, and AutoFDO in the Kernel,” Linux Plumber’s Conference, https://linuxplumbersconf.org/event/7/contributions/798 , 2020
[Vega 20] Juan Camilo Vega, Marco Antonio Merlini, Paul Chow, “FFShark: A 100G FPGA Implementation of BPF Filtering for Wireshark,” IEEE 28th Annual International Symposium on Field-Programmable Custom Computing Machines (FCCM), 2020
[Warren 20] Tom Warren, “Microsoft reportedly designing its own ARM-based chips for servers and Surface PCs,” https://www.theverge.com/2020/12/18/22189450/microsoft-arm-processors-chips-servers-surface-report , Dec 2020
[Alcorn 21] Paul Alcorn, “Intel Shares Alder Lake Pricing, Specs and Gaming Performance: $589 for 16 Cores,” https://www.tomshardware.com/features/intel-shares-alder-lake-pricing-specs-and-gaming-performance , Oct 2021
[Cutress 21] Ian Cutress, “AMD Demonstrates Stacked 3D V-Cache Technology: 192 MB at 2 TB/sec,” https://www.anandtech.com/show/16725/amd-demonstrates-stacked-vcache-technology-2-tbsec-for-15-gaming , May 2021
[Google 21] Google, “Cloud TPU,” https://cloud.google.com/tpu , 2021
[Haken 21] Michael Haken, et al., “Delta Lake 1S Server Design Specification 1v05, https://www.opencompute.org/documents/delta-lake-1s-server-design-specification-1v05-pdf , 2021
[Intel 21] Intel corporation, “Intel® OptaneTM Technology,” https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/products/docs/storage/optane-technology-brief.html , 2021
[Kostovic 21] Aleksandar Kostovic, “Esperanto Delivers Kilocore Processor in its Supercomputer-on-a-Chip Design,” https://www.tomshardware.com/news/esperanto-kilocore-processor , Aug 2021
[Kummrow 21] Patricia Kummrow, “The IPU: A New, Strategic Resource for Cloud Service Providers,” https://itpeernetwork.intel.com/ipu-cloud/#gs.g5pkub , Aug 2021
[Quach 21a] Katyanna Quach, “Global chip shortage probably won't let up until 2023, warns TSMC: CEO 'still expects capacity to tighten more',” https://www.theregister.com/2021/04/16/tsmc_chip_forecast , Apr 2021
[Quach 21b] Katyanna Quach, “IBM says it's built the world's first 2nm semiconductor chips,” https://www.theregister.com/2021/05/06/ibm_2nm_semiconductor_chips , May 2021
[Ridley 21] Jacob Ridley, “IBM agrees with Intel and TSMC: this chip shortage isn't going to end anytime soon,” https://www.pcgamer.com/ibm-agrees-with-intel-and-tsmc-this-chip-shortage-isnt-going-to-end-anytime-soon , May 2021
[Shilov 21] Anton Shilov, “Samsung Develops 512GB DDR5 Module with HKMG DDR5 Chips,” https://www.tomshardware.com/news/samsung-512gb-ddr5-memory-module , Mar 2021
[Shilov 21b] Anton Shilov, “Seagate Ships 20TB HAMR HDDs Commercially, Increases Shipments of Mach.2 Drives,” https://www.tomshardware.com/news/seagate-ships-hamr-hdds-increases-dual-actuator-shipments , 2021
[Shilov 21c] Anton Shilov, “SK Hynix Envisions 600-Layer 3D NAND & EUV-Based DRAM,” https://www.tomshardware.com/news/sk-hynix-600-layer-3d-nand-euv-dram , Mar 2021
[SuperMicro 21] SuperMicro, “B12SPE-CPU-25G (For SuperServer Only),” https://www.supermicro.com/en/products/motherboard/B12SPE-CPU-25G , 2021
[Thaler 21] Dave Thaler, Poorna Gaddehosur, “Making eBPF work on Windows,” https://cloudblogs.microsoft.com/opensource/2021/05/10/making-ebpf-work-on-windows , May 2021
[TornadoVM 21] TornadoVM, “TornadoVM Run your software faster and simpler!” https://www.tornadovm.org , 2021
[Trader 21] Tiffany Trader, “Cerebras Second-Gen 7nm Wafer Scale Engine Doubles AI Performance Over First-Gen Chip ,” https://www.enterpriseai.news/2021/04/21/latest-cerebras-second-gen-7nm-wafer-scale-engine-doubles-ai-performance-over-first-gen-chip , Apr 2021
[Ghigoff 21] Yoann Ghigoff, et al., "BMC: Accelerating Memcached using Safe In-kernel Caching and Pre-stack Processing," Proceedings of the 18th USENIX Symposium on Networked Systems Design and Implementation, https://www.usenix.org/system/files/nsdi21-ghigoff.pdf , Apr 2021
[Tyson 21] Mark Tyson, "Intel Sapphire Rapids utillises tiled, modular SoC architecture," https://hexus.net/tech/news/cpu/148266-intel-sapphire-rapids-utillises-tiled-modular-soc-architecture/ , Aug 2021
[Vahdat 21] Amin Vahdat, “The past, present and future of custom compute at Google,” https://cloud.google.com/blog/topics/systems/the-past-present-and-future-of-custom-compute-at-google , Mar 2021
[Wikipedia 21] “Semiconductor device fabrication,” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semiconductor_device_fabrication , 2021
[Wikipedia 21b] “Silicon,” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silicon , 2021
[ZonedStorage 21] Zoned Storage, “Zoned Namespaces (ZNS) SSDs,” https://zonedstorage.io/introduction/zns , 2021
[Cutress 21b] Dr. Ian Cutress, Andrei Frumusanu, "The Intel 12th Gen Core i9-12900K Review: Hybrid Performance Brings Hybrid Complexity," https://www.anandtech.com/show/17047/the-intel-12th-gen-core-i912900k-review-hybrid-performance-brings-hybrid-complexity , Nov 2021
[Nash 22] Paul Nash, "Now in preview: Azure Virtual Machines with Ampere Altra Arm-based processors," https://azure.microsoft.com/en-us/blog/now-in-preview-azure-virtual-machines-with-ampere-altra-armbased-processors/ , Apr 2022
[Bonshor 22] Gavin Bonshor, "AMD Releases Milan-X CPUs With 3D V-Cache," https://www.anandtech.com/show/17323/amd-releases-milan-x-cpus-with-3d-vcache-epyc-7003 , Mar 2022
[Mann 22] Tobias Mann, "Why Intel killed its Optane memory business," https://www.theregister.com/2022/07/29/intel_optane_memory_dead/ , Jul 2022
[Torvalds 22] Linus Torvalds, “Linux 6.0-rc1,” https://git.kernel.org/pub/scm/linux/kernel/git/torvalds/linux.git/commit/?id=568035b01cfb107af8d2e4bd2fb9aea22cf5b868 , Aug 2022
[Whalen 22] Jeanne Whalen, "Biden’s visit shows high stakes of $20 billion Ohio chip factory," https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2022/09/09/biden-intel-ohio-chip-factory/ , Sep 2022
[Robinson 22] Dan Robinson, "Intel has a secret club in the cloud for devs to try out new chips – and you ain't in it," https://www.theregister.com/2022/09/28/intel_developer_cloud/ , Sep 2022
[CloudHypervisor 22] Cloud Hypervisor Project (Linux Foundation), "Run Cloud Virtual Machines Securely and Efficiently," https://www.cloudhypervisor.org , accessed 2022
[Cerebras 22] Cerebras, "Cerebras Wafer-Scale Cluster," https://www.cerebras.net/product-cluster , accessed 2022
[GrafanaLabs 22] Grafana Labs, "https://grafana.com/docs/grafana/latest/panels-visualizations/visualizations/flame-graph/, " https://grafana.com/docs/grafana/latest/panels-visualizations/visualizations/flame-graph/ , accessed 2022
[Pirzada 22] Usman Pirzada, "Intel Announces The Worlds First x86 CPU With HBM Memory: Xeon Max ‘Sapphire Rapids’ Data Center CPU," https://wccftech.com/intel-announces-the-worlds-first-x86-cpu-with-hbm-memory-xeon-max-sapphire-rapids-data-center-cpu/ , Nov 2022
[Smith 22] Lyle Smith, "Samsung PM1743 PCIe Gen5 SSD First Take Review," https://www.storagereview.com/review/samsung-pm1743-pcie-gen5-ssd-first-take-review , Jan 2022
[Barr 22] Jeff Barr, "New Amazon EC2 Instance Types In the Works – C7gn, R7iz, and Hpc7g," https://aws.amazon.com/blogs/aws/new-amazon-ec2-instance-types-in-the-works-c7gn-r7iz-and-hpc7g , Nov 2022
[Gooding 22] Matthew Gooding, "TSMC’s US fab will make 4nm chips for Apple, AMD and Nvidia," https://techmonitor.ai/technology/silicon/tsmcs-arizona-apple-amd-nvidia , Dec 2022
[Liu 22] Zhiye Liu, "Smuggler Hid Over 200 Alder Lake CPUs in Fake Silicone Belly," https://www.tomshardware.com/news/smuggler-hid-over-200-alder-lake-cpus-in-fake-silicone-belly , Dec 2022
[Seagate 22] Seagato, "Exos X Series," https://www.seagate.com/au/en/products/enterprise-drives/exos-x/ , accessed 2022
[Mann 22b] Tobais Mann, "Nvidia not cutting it? Google and Amazon’s latest AI chips have arrived," https://www.theregister.com/2022/10/11/google_amazon_ai_chips_nvidia/ , Oct 2022
[Intel 22] Intel, "Intel® Developer Cloud," https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/developer/tools/devcloud/overview.html , accessed Dec 2022
I've taken care to cite the author names along with the talk titles and dates, including for Internet sources, instead of the common practice of just listing URLs. I followed that practice when writing some earlier books, and it has since struck me as unfair that some references had author names and some didn't. Nowadays I always include full names when known.