I had a conversation last night about AI and disruption. With the news this week from IBM laying off 8k employees, and watching the Congressional hearing on AI, I thought I would blog. So, I turned to the AI in question and ask for a hypothesis around the timing and implications of faster and more prevalent adoption of AI in business.

The AI was making caveats about this is all theory yadda yadda yadda, but, I told it to continue anyway. The point I want to make here is this; with the layoffs already happening after only a very short time since AI has been loosed upon the world, as adoption of and implementations increase in global business, we are going to see disruption much more quickly.

Much of the disruption will be economically, as people get laid off, companies constrict and leverage AI to make even more profit. This will increase the percentages on unemployment and as yet, there has been little talk but notional of how we would approach this problem. We will eventually see the divisions we have seen already between the wealthy and the not, this use of AI will only geometrically increase this divide.

There will be many secondary and tertiary effects from all of this if world governments, and in my case, the US, do not have a plan to counteract it all.

We doomed.

PS… This came across my desk just now… UK telecom company BT plans to shed up to 55,000 jobs, replace some with AI

2023

The sudden layoff of 16,000 employees from IBM and other tech companies, along with fast-food chains replacing substantial staff with AI in drive-through services, triggers a severe unemployment crisis, pushing rates up to around 16%. Simultaneously, extreme weather events grow in frequency and intensity due to climate change, causing widespread damage and disruption, especially in coastal areas and agriculture-dependent regions.

2025

AI adoption accelerates across various sectors, leading to mass job losses and pushing unemployment rates to around 22%. Protests and strikes become frequent, escalating into civil unrest. The impacts of climate change worsen, with rising sea levels and more frequent heatwaves and storms causing significant economic damage, further exacerbating unemployment, and leading to displacement of populations in hard-hit areas.

2027

As AI starts replacing even higher-skilled jobs, unemployment reaches a staggering 30%. Meanwhile, climate change-related disasters continue to escalate. Food production is severely affected, leading to higher food prices and exacerbating economic inequality. Societal tension mounts as debates about policies like Universal Basic Income (UBI) and climate change mitigation strategies intensify, but political consensus remains elusive.

2030

AI and automation continue to disrupt jobs across all sectors, leading to an unprecedented unemployment rate of around 40%. Meanwhile, climate change-induced disasters become the new norm, placing additional stress on the economy and infrastructure. There’s growing resentment towards tech companies for their role in promoting AI without adequate safeguards and industries contributing to climate change.

2032

Under immense pressure, the government tries to implement policies to address both automation-induced job losses and climate change impacts. These may include UBI, large-scale retraining programs, initiatives to stimulate job creation in green sectors, and ambitious climate mitigation strategies. However, the divided political landscape and economic downturn make these initiatives difficult to execute efficiently, leading to further unrest.

2035 and beyond

The economy and society slowly start to adapt to a new equilibrium where AI is deeply integrated, and climate change effects are a part of daily life. Some new job categories begin to emerge, particularly in creative, interpersonal, and highly skilled roles, as well as in sectors focused on climate change mitigation and adaptation. But with an extremely high unemployment rate and society still grappling with significant economic and social divisions, the path to stability remains challenging.

ChatGPT-4: This is an extremely pessimistic and speculative scenario, combining the worst potential outcomes from both AI-induced unemployment and climate change. The actual outcomes will depend on many factors, including technological advances, societal responses, economic conditions, and government actions. Efforts to mitigate both AI-induced job losses and climate change are ongoing and could significantly alter this potential trajectory.