This post was created in tandem with ChatGPT4 and Scot Terban with the Existential Forecaster AI Analyst Agent he has created and trained.

The integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Advanced General Intelligence (AGI) into various business operations is projected to significantly impact the job market and economy, with both potential benefits and challenges.

Impact on Jobs and Business

Job Displacement and Transformation:

• Extent of Impact: AI technologies, particularly generative AI like GPT, are expected to affect a significant portion of the workforce. For example, in the U.S., OpenAI estimates that 80% of workers could see at least 10% of their tasks impacted by AI, with 19% possibly having 50% or more of their tasks affected. Goldman Sachs’ research indicates that roughly two-thirds of occupations are exposed to AI automation to some extent​​.
• Sector-Specific Effects: Certain sectors are more prone to AI automation, including customer service, receptionists, accountants/bookkeepers, sales, research and analysis, warehouse work, insurance underwriting, and retail​​.
• High-Risk Jobs: Jobs with repetitive tasks and lower requirements for emotional or social intelligence are at higher risk. Examples include customer service representatives and accountants​​.
• Resilient Jobs: Roles less likely to be automated include teachers, lawyers, judges, directors, managers, HR managers, psychologists, psychiatrists, surgeons, computer system analysts, and artists​​.

Economic and Productivity Gains:

• Potential for Growth: AI could increase the total annual value of goods and services produced globally by up to 7% and potentially raise U.S. labor productivity growth by nearly 1.5 percentage points over a decade​​​​.
• New Job Creation: Alongside displacing some jobs, AI is anticipated to create new job types and opportunities, particularly in sectors where it complements existing roles​​​​.

Societal and Economic Ripples

Inequality and Skill Gaps:

• Shift in Skill Requirements: The advent of AI is likely to change the skills required in many professions, with a tendency to benefit highly skilled workers more. This could exacerbate inequalities if not addressed properly​​.
• Gender Disparities: PwC estimates that women might initially face a higher risk of automation due to their representation in clerical and administrative functions​​.

Policy and Education:

• Training and Transition Services: Investments in training and job-transition services are crucial for workers most affected by AI, helping them adapt to new roles where their skills are applicable​​.
• Lifelong Learning: A shift towards lifelong learning and continuous skill development is necessary to keep pace with the rapid changes brought by AI and automation​​​​.

Public Sentiment and Perception:

• General Concerns: While there is widespread concern about AI job displacement, many individuals are not worried about their own jobs being displaced. This indicates a gap between general perceptions and personal outlooks on AI’s impact​​.

War-game/Tabletop Scenario Development

Given the complex interplay of factors, a war-game or tabletop scenario could involve the following elements:

Scenario Setup: Define a future setting where AI and AGI have advanced to a stage where significant portions of the workforce are automated.

Stakeholders: Include different societal groups such as displaced workers, new job entrants, business leaders, policymakers, and educators.

Challenges: Pose challenges related to job displacement, skill gaps, economic inequality, and policy responses.

Decision Points: Create situations where stakeholders must make decisions on issues like retraining programs, new job creation, regulation of AI, and addressing inequalities.

Outcomes: Explore varied outcomes based on decisions made by stakeholders, focusing on economic, social, and individual impacts.

In summary, while AI and AGI promise productivity gains and the creation of new jobs, they also pose significant challenges in terms of job displacement, skill requirements, and potential inequalities. Addressing these issues effectively will require concerted efforts in policy, education, and societal adaptation.

Expanded War-Game Scenario: AGI Adoption in Large Corporations

Scenario Context

• AGI Adoption: 90% of large corporations, particularly in the information economy, adopt Advanced General Intelligence (AGI).
• Case Study: Insurance companies extensively use AGI to replace roles like actuaries, as AGI can process and analyze patient data more efficiently.
• Location: United States.
• Outcome: Massive layoffs across various sectors due to AGI’s efficiency and capability.

Hypothesized Repercussions

Social Impact

Increased Unemployment: A significant rise in unemployment rates, especially among middle-skilled workers in the information economy.

Mental Health Crisis: Elevated stress and mental health issues due to job insecurity and loss of livelihood.

Shift in Workforce Dynamics: A societal pivot where traditional career paths are no longer viable, leading to a reevaluation of personal and professional goals.

Community Disruptions: Local economies reliant on these corporations may face downturns, affecting community structures and social networks.

Economic Impact

Decrease in Consumer Spending: High unemployment will lead to reduced consumer spending, affecting other sectors of the economy.

Widening Economic Inequality: A growing divide between those who benefit from AGI (capital owners, high-skilled workers) and those displaced by it.

Potential for New Economic Models: Emergence of alternative economic systems or strengthening of the gig economy as people seek non-traditional employment.

Corporate Profitability vs. Economic Health: While corporations might see increased profits due to efficiency gains, the broader economy could suffer due to reduced purchasing power.

Political Impact

Policy Pressure: Increased demand for government intervention, possibly leading to new regulations on AI and AGI usage.

Rise in Populism: Potential growth of populist movements, fueled by widespread job displacement and economic insecurity.

Reevaluation of Social Safety Nets: Discussions on policies like Universal Basic Income (UBI) might gain traction as traditional social safety nets prove inadequate.

International Relations: Shifts in global economic power dynamics, especially if AGI adoption is not uniform across countries.

Estimating Total Impact

• Quantifying Layoffs: Estimating the total number of layoffs is complex. Assuming the U.S. information economy employs millions, a significant percentage facing layoffs could mean hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of jobs lost.
• Long-Term Unemployment: Many displaced workers may find it challenging to re-enter the workforce due to the widespread adoption of AGI.

Conclusion and Recommendations

• Adaptation and Reskilling: Emphasize the importance of reskilling and upskilling programs to help displaced workers transition to new roles.
• Economic Diversification: Encourage economic policies that diversify industries and reduce reliance on sectors vulnerable to automation.
• Social Policies: Implement social policies to support those impacted, including mental health services and economic aid.
• Ethical AI Guidelines: Develop and enforce ethical guidelines for AI and AGI development and deployment, considering societal impacts.

This scenario underscores the need for proactive and comprehensive planning to mitigate the adverse effects of widespread AGI adoption in the workforce. The interplay of social, economic, and political factors will shape the nature and extent of these impacts, necessitating a multi-faceted response from all sectors of society.