This post was created in tandem between Scot Terban and the ICEBREAKER A.I. Intel Analyst.

VOLT TYPHOON and LoLBins:

The VOLT TYPHOON campaign, associated with state-sponsored actors from China, represents a significant and sophisticated threat to US critical infrastructure. This campaign has successfully maintained stealthy access to various sectors of American critical infrastructure for at least five years, focusing on a wide range of targets including aviation, rail, mass transit, highway, maritime, pipeline, water, and sewage systems. The strategic intent behind these intrusions appears to be to pre-position themselves for destructive cyberattacks, potentially in anticipation of major conflicts or crises.

VOLT TYPHOON utilized “living-off-the-land” techniques, leveraging legitimate system tools and features to maintain long-term, undiscovered persistence within compromised networks. Initial access was often achieved through exploiting vulnerabilities in internet-facing devices such as routers, firewalls, and VPNs, after which the actors maintained access and moved laterally within the networks, primarily using stolen administrator credentials. Their activities included extensive reconnaissance to avoid detection and potential disruptions of operational technology systems, indicating a shift from traditional cyber espionage to preparing for disruptive or destructive cyber activities​​​​​​​​​​.

This campaign’s ability to live off the land for an extended period underscores the evolving threat landscape and the sophistication of nation-state actors. It also highlights the critical importance for every organization, especially those in the critical infrastructure sector, to adopt comprehensive cybersecurity measures. The potential for similar tactics to be adopted by other nation-state and non-state actors is high, given the success and low detection rates associated with such strategies.

Countering these kinds of activities is more crucial today than ever for several reasons:

• Increased Dependency on Digital Infrastructure: The growing reliance on digital and operational technology systems for critical infrastructure operations makes the potential impact of cyberattacks more severe.
• Evolving Threat Landscape: The continuous evolution of threat actor tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs), including the use of living-off-the-land strategies, makes detecting and defending against these threats more challenging.
• Geopolitical Tensions: The potential use of cyber operations as a tool in geopolitical conflicts increases the risk of preemptive and retaliatory cyberattacks targeting critical infrastructure.
• Economic and Societal Impact: The disruption of critical infrastructure can have significant economic and societal consequences, affecting everything from water supply and electricity to transportation and communication networks.

To defend against these threats, organizations must prioritize the implementation of robust cybersecurity practices, including regular vulnerability assessments, applying the principle of least privilege, network segmentation, behavioral monitoring, and incident response planning. Moreover, fostering collaboration between public and private sectors for sharing threat intelligence and best practices is vital for enhancing collective defense capabilities against sophisticated cyber threats.

The case of VOLT TYPHOON serves as a stark reminder of the advanced capabilities of nation-state actors and the need for comprehensive security measures to protect against similar threats. As it seems many organizations are not currently monitoring at a level to sufficiently detect and respond to these kinds of threats, I thought it prudent to put together a pro’s and con’s of carrying out these kinds of activities. Without properly carrying out these kinds of tasks, we will forever be seeing these kinds of attacks like VOLT TYPHOON repeating themselves over and over.

Pros

1. Enhanced Detection and Response: Advanced detection mechanisms improve threat identification and mitigation, potentially saving costs associated with data breaches, such as remediation expenses, fines, and reputational damage.
2. Reduced Attack Surface: By minimizing vulnerabilities, organizations can deter attacks, reducing the likelihood and associated costs of security incidents.
3. Improved Security Posture: A strong security culture and adherence to best practices can prevent costly security incidents, lowering long-term operational costs.
4. Compliance and Risk Management: Meeting regulatory requirements helps avoid fines and legal fees, while effective risk management can prevent financial losses from security breaches.
5. Adaptability to Emerging Threats: Flexibility in security strategies allows organizations to respond to new threats more efficiently, potentially reducing the need for costly emergency measures.

Cons

1. Initial and Ongoing Costs: The acquisition, implementation, and maintenance of security solutions (EDR, SIEM, application whitelisting tools) represent significant financial investments. Training personnel and potentially hiring additional staff can further increase expenses.
2. Potential for False Positives: Managing false positives requires manpower and resources, which could lead to wasted effort and operational inefficiencies, indirectly increasing costs.
3. Operational Disruptions: Rigorous security measures might necessitate changes in business processes or software, potentially leading to downtime or reduced productivity, which can have financial implications.
4. Complexity and Management Overhead: The complexity of integrating and managing multiple security systems can lead to higher operational costs, including the need for specialized staff and additional training.
5. User Resistance and Productivity Loss: Implementing restrictive measures can lead to user dissatisfaction and reduced productivity, potentially impacting the bottom line if critical business processes are slowed down.

Cost Considerations

Initial Investment: The upfront cost of implementing comprehensive security measures can be significant, including the purchase of software, hardware, and the need for specialized personnel to deploy and manage these systems.

Operational Expenses: Ongoing expenses include software subscriptions, updates, and maintenance fees, as well as salaries for security professionals. These costs can accumulate over time, requiring continuous budget allocation.

Cost-Benefit Analysis: Organizations must conduct a cost-benefit analysis to evaluate whether the potential savings from averting security incidents outweigh the expenses of implementing and maintaining comprehensive countermeasures. This analysis should consider direct costs (e.g., fines, legal fees, remediation costs) and indirect costs (e.g., reputational damage, loss of business).

Scalability and Efficiency: Investing in scalable solutions that can grow with the organization and improve operational efficiency can help manage costs over time. Automation and integration of security tools can reduce manual labor and streamline security operations, offering long-term cost savings.

Financial Planning and Budgeting: Effective financial planning and budgeting are essential to accommodate the costs of comprehensive security measures. Organizations should prioritize investments in security based on risk assessments and potential impact to ensure resources are allocated efficiently.

Initial Investment: Upfront costs encompass not only software and hardware but also migration or integration expenses for cloud-based solutions. This includes setting up secure cloud environments and ensuring that security tools are properly configured within these platforms.

Operational Expenses: Beyond subscriptions and maintenance, operational expenses in cloud environments can vary significantly based on usage. Costs related to security in the cloud include data transfer fees, storage costs, and the expenses associated with processing and analyzing security data.

Cloud Costs Specifics:

• Log Volume and Throughput: Security tools, especially those involved in monitoring and analyzing log data, can generate a vast amount of information. In cloud environments, the costs associated with storing, processing, and analyzing this data can be substantial. High log volumes and throughput may require more storage space and compute power, leading to increased costs.
• Retention Policies: Retaining logs and security data for compliance or investigative purposes is essential. However, longer retention periods can significantly increase storage costs in the cloud. Organizations must balance regulatory requirements and the need for historical data against the financial implications of long-term data retention.
• Efficient Data Management: Implementing strategies for efficient data management, such as data compression, deduplication, and archiving less critical data to cheaper storage options, can help manage costs related to log volume and retention.
• Scalable Solutions: Opting for scalable cloud solutions can help manage costs related to throughput and log volume. Pay-as-you-go models allow organizations to scale up or down based on current needs, preventing overprovisioning and underutilization.
• Optimization and Monitoring Tools: Utilizing cloud cost optimization and monitoring tools can help organizations keep track of their security-related expenses, identify cost-saving opportunities, and manage budget more effectively. These tools can provide insights into usage patterns, allowing for adjustments in real-time to avoid unnecessary expenses.

Cost-Benefit Analysis Revisited:

When incorporating cloud costs, organizations should reassess the cost-benefit analysis to include the variable costs associated with log volume, throughput, and retention. This analysis should factor in the potential cost savings from preventing breaches against the dynamic expenses of cloud-based security operations.

Financial Planning and Budgeting for Cloud:

Effective financial planning for cloud security requires a dynamic approach, accommodating the fluctuating costs associated with data volume and cloud services. Organizations may need to allocate a portion of their budget for unexpected increases in usage or for scaling up services during periods of high demand.

By addressing these additional cost considerations related to cloud services, organizations can gain a more nuanced understanding of the financial implications of deploying comprehensive countermeasures against LOLBAS misuse in the cloud. This enhanced perspective is crucial for making informed decisions about security investments and for optimizing cloud security posture in a cost-effective manner.

The Imperative for Heightened Cybersecurity Vigilance

The VOLT TYPHOON campaign exemplifies the critical need for comprehensive cybersecurity strategies to protect against sophisticated nation-state actors. The potential replication of similar tactics by other nation and non-nation state actors amplifies the urgency for enhanced cybersecurity vigilance.

Pros and Cons of Implementing Comprehensive Countermeasures

Adopting thorough cybersecurity practices offers numerous benefits, including improved detection and response capabilities, reduced attack surfaces, and compliance with regulatory standards. However, organizations must navigate the associated challenges, such as the financial burdens of initial and ongoing security investments, the complexity of managing integrated security systems, and potential operational disruptions.

Cost Considerations in a Cloud-Enabled World

The shift towards cloud environments introduces specific cost considerations, including the management of log volume, throughput, and data retention. Efficient data management and scalable cloud solutions emerge as critical factors in controlling costs while ensuring robust security postures.

A Collective Call to Action

The revelations from the VOLT TYPHOON campaign serve as a stark reminder of the advanced capabilities of nation-state cyber actors and the continuous need for dynamic, comprehensive security measures. As the threat landscape evolves, so too must the strategies to counteract these threats. Collaboration between public and private sectors, alongside a commitment to implementing and maintaining sophisticated cybersecurity practices, is essential for safeguarding critical infrastructure against future campaigns of this nature.

In conclusion, the VOLT TYPHOON campaign not only highlights the adeptness and persistence of cyber threats targeting critical infrastructure but also emphasizes the increasing importance of comprehensive cybersecurity measures in today’s digital age for everyone. Organizations must balance the benefits of enhanced security with the associated costs and challenges, adopting a proactive and vigilant stance to navigate the complexities of the modern cybersecurity landscape.

~K