This post was created in tandem between Scot A Terban and the Middle Eastern Intelligence Analyst created and trained by Scot A Terban.

Context

Following the recent death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash, there is significant speculation and maneuvering regarding his potential successors. This analysis explores the key figures likely to vie for the presidency and their potential impact on Iran’s political landscape and international relations.

Key Candidates and Succession Odds

1. Mohammad Mokhber
   • Current Position: First Vice President of Iran
   • Background: Mokhber has been named interim president following Raisi’s death. He has a strong administrative background and close ties to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
   • Strengths: His current position as interim president gives him a significant advantage. His loyalty to Khamenei ensures support from the hardline faction.
   • Threat Level: High. Mokhber is likely to continue Raisi’s policies, including a hardline stance against the West and closer ties with Russia and China​ (Wikipedia)​​ (RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty)​.
2. Mojtaba Khamenei
   • Current Position: Influential son of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei
   • Background: Mojtaba has been groomed for leadership and holds significant influence within the Revolutionary Guard and the clerical establishment.
   • Strengths: His familial connection to the Supreme Leader positions him as a powerful candidate with substantial support from the conservative establishment.
   • Threat Level: Very High. Mojtaba’s succession would likely mean the continuation and possible intensification of ultraconservative policies, further entrenching the power of the Revolutionary Guard​ (Wikipedia)​​ (RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty)​.
3. Ali Larijani
   • Current Position: Former Speaker of the Parliament
   • Background: Larijani is a seasoned politician with a pragmatic conservative stance. He has served in various high-profile roles, including head of the judiciary and parliament speaker.
   • Strengths: His experience and relatively moderate conservative views might appeal to those seeking a less hardline approach.
   • Threat Level: Medium. While Larijani could introduce some moderation, his election would still likely uphold many of the regime’s core policies, maintaining stability but not significantly altering Iran’s trajectory​ (ایران اینترنشنال)​.
4. Hassan Rouhani
   • Current Position: Former President of Iran
   • Background: Known for his moderate and reformist views, Rouhani previously held the presidency and sought to improve relations with the West through the nuclear deal.
   • Strengths: Rouhani’s experience and reformist agenda could appeal to a populace weary of economic hardships and international isolation.
   • Threat Level: Low to Medium. While Rouhani’s potential return could lead to more diplomatic engagement with the West, his past term’s mixed results and current political climate make his election less likely​ (ایران اینترنشنال)​.

Implications

• Domestic Stability: The death of Raisi has created a power vacuum that could lead to increased factionalism within the conservative camp. This instability might result in intensified crackdowns on dissent and opposition figures as different factions vie for control.
• International Relations: The election of a hardline candidate like Mokhber or Mojtaba Khamenei would likely mean continued or even increased hostility towards Western countries and closer ties with Russia and China. Conversely, a moderate candidate like Larijani or Rouhani could open the door to renewed diplomatic negotiations, although this is less likely given the current political environment.
• Regional Dynamics: Iran’s policies towards regional conflicts, particularly in Yemen, Syria, and its support for groups like Hezbollah and Hamas, are unlikely to change significantly under a new hardline president. However, a moderate administration might seek to de-escalate some of these conflicts to alleviate economic pressures.

This analysis highlights the complex and potentially volatile nature of Iran’s political future in the wake of Raisi’s death. The succession battle will not only shape Iran’s internal politics but also have significant implications for regional and global stability.